The NFL’s best rivalry resumes this Sunday when the 6-2 New England Patriots visit the undefeated Indianapolis Colts. New England enters the game riding a soft 3 game winning streak against some of the leagues lesser opponents, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, and Miami. Indianapolis enters the game winners of 17 consecutive regular season games, tied for 3rd longest in league history. Both teams are poised to make deep playoff runs this year again and with the winner of this game, either solidifying home-field advantage or opening the door for someone else to step in.
There is very little that separates these teams after 8 games in the season. The New England and Indianapolis are ranked 7th and 8th in total defense respectively and 1st and 2nd in points allowed. Offensively, these teams are ranked in the top 5 in total offense, points scored, and 1st and 3rd in sacks allowed. Both of these teams are so evenly matched up in most major statistically categories that focusing on the team statistics is almost pointless. This game will turn on the individual battles on both sides of the ball.
The Dwight Freeney factor could potentially pose a huge matchup problem for New England. Indianapolis is 5th in the league in total sacks; lead by pro bowl defensive end Freeney with 9.5 sacks. New England will counter Freeney without their best offensive tackle in Matt Light. Light has been suffering from a knee injury and in typical Bill Belichick fashion; I do not expect him to be officially “out” until game time. Sebastian Vollmer, a plodding 6-foot-8 rookie from Houston will have the unenviable task of stopping Freeney from getting a sack in his 9th consecutive game. With Freeney’s small size, low center of gravity, and explosive first step, Vollmer should have his hands full much of the day. New England will be forced to use tight ends and running back and potentially more max protect packages depending on the pressure throughout the game, limiting Brady’s passing options. Advantage goes to Freeney and the Indianapolis Colts.
The debate rages on every single year and is only magnified when these two teams play, Manning or Brady? Where do we start when trying to quantify which quarterback is “more great?” Is it there head to head records? Tom Brady is leading the head to head matchup 7-3 but Manning has won 3 of the last 4. What about Super Bowls? Brady has 3 rings compared to Manning’s 1. How about MVP awards? Manning has won 3 MVP Awards, 2003, 2004, and 2008 compared to Brady’s single award in 2007. Even this year these quarterback’s numbers are almost identical. Manning has thrown for 2545 yards, completed 70.6% of his passes, with 16 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Brady has thrown for 2364 yards, completed 65.8% of his passes, with 16 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. So how does any of this information help us for Sunday? It really does little in helping me figure who will cover but for some of betters out there, these number will only reinforce the perception of how great one quarterback is over another and push them in that direction. What I can determine from these quarterback numbers is that neither team will be using the run to set up the pass. Expect lots of attempts and more probably, lots of yardage especially for Brady with Bob Saunders being out for the season with a torn biceps tendon. I want to lean towards Brady even if on the road because of the absence of Bob Saunders but if there is one quarterback who can win a game by himself, it is Payton Manning. I direct the reader back to week 2 in which Manning led the Colts to a victory over Miami while only possessing the ball on offense for 14:53. There really is no advantage to be had between the two quarterbacks.
Where the game will turn is in each team’s red-zone efficiency. Settling for 3 will not be enough with the way both of these teams can put up points. This year New England has been notoriously bad in the red zone, scoring only 44% of the time, good for 25th in the league. Indianapolis has been a little better, scoring 55% of the time, good for 14th in the league. However, in their last 3 games, Indianapolis has had some trouble putting the ball in the end zone, scoring only 45% of the time with the last two games coming at home against San Francisco and Houston. It could prove to be a troublesome trend as the Colts are scoring far less, settling for more field goals, and Payton Manning is being forced to throw the ball far more than most quarterbacks would like, 98 attempts in the last 2 games.
At 8-0, the sense of urgency is still far greater for Indianapolis than New England. I don’t believe Indianapolis can go into New England, in the middle of December, and pull out a victory. New England on the other hand, has proven they can win anywhere in any weather condition, at any time of the year. Indianapolis cannot say the same thing, they need New England or any other cold weather team to travel to the friendly confides of Lucas Oil Stadium.
Sunday Night Football Pick: The game has coin flip written all over it. It is easy to make an argument for both teams because of how evenly matched up they have been through the first 8 games. If the spread stays below -3 Indianapolis, take Indianapolis. If the spread climbs above -3 at any point, take New England.
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