Sunday, October 3, 2010

NFL Betting: Who's Hot and Who's Not Heading Into Week 4

NFL betting fanatics are always trying to find the best and worst teams in the game for both spreads and 'totals' to back on a regular basis. Here at BetVega, we have all the ins and outs of what NFL trends you should be looking at through Week 3.

ATS Annihilators

There are only two teams on the year that are still undefeated ATS, and the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers both deserve that recognition. The Chiefs have won three games outright as underdogs, while the Steelers have two outright wins as pups and have an annihilation to their credit as well of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last weekend.

The third undefeated team might only be 2-1 ATS on the year, but we have to look at the Chicago Bears, especially since they were able to upset the Green Bay Packers on MNF this week.

Bankroll Busters

The only team that has yet to cover an NFL spread this year is the Carolina Panthers. This team has been an absolute joke and only has 14 points to show for its L/2 NFL betting battles overall.
The two 1-2 ATS teams that we are absolutely staying away from are the San Francisco 49ers and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Niners are the biggest underachievers of the season at 1-2 ATS and 0-3 SU, while the Jags have only scored 40 points, the fewest in the NFC and third fewest in the league. Any guesses who the other two teams are? That's right. Carolina (32) and San Fran (38).

The 'Over'lords

The only 3-0 'over' team in the NFL this year left standing is the New England Patriots. Not only do the Pats have the only team in the league that is averaging 30.0+ points per game, but they have also allowed 82 points as well, the third most in the conference.

Both the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers are 2-0-1 towards the 'over', which earns them both spots on this list as 'Over'lords. For the Seahawks, the damage has been done offensively and on special teams, while San Fran has just been miserable defensively, allowing the most points in the league through three games with 87.

Bridge 'Under' Troubled Waters

The Green Bay Packers have only allowed 47 points in three games this year and are clearly the top 'under' team in the land at 3-0. However, the Minnesota Vikings are the lowest scoring team in terms of total point production in the NFL at just 43 points for and 38 against. It isn't shocking that they are the other 3-0 'under' team in NFL betting action.

The third 'under' squad to watch out for is the St. Louis Rams. With a rookie quarterback starting and an improving defense, the Rams are doing their job. They might only be 1-2 right now, but St. Louis is on the way up, and the only way that will continue is with more 'under' battles.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Colts vs Jaguars Thursday Night Football Prediction

Thursday Night football has the undefeated Indianapolis Colts traveling to Jacksonville to play the 7-6 Jaguars as 3 point favorites. The games only intrigue will be the Colts pursuit of perfection. At 3 points and against that is every bit as good as their 7-6 record indicates, the Colts should have absolutely no problem in walking out of Grass of Jacksonville Municipal Stadium 14-0. Jacksonville’s only hope will be on an over reliance of Maurice Jones Drew to keep this game close even so, it would have to be a career day to keep this game close. The Colts should have little trouble covering this game despite what past trends may indicate on how these teams play each other.

The last time these teams played was in week 1 of the season in which Indianapolis narrowly escaped with a 14-12 victory. This time, do not expect a similarly close game. 14 weeks later and the Colts have established themselves as easily one of the best all around teams in football. The Colts rank in the top 6 in almost every significant offensive category entering the last third of the season. The Colts ranks 6th in points per game at 27.6, 4th in yards per game at 384.4, 2nd in first downs with 23.4 per game, 1st in passing yards at 296.4 yards per game, and 3rd in yard per play at 6.1. The list goes on for the Colt offensive and in the last 3 games; the team has actually increased their point total to an average of 30 points per game, signifying that this team is nowhere near taking their foot off the pedal even after clinching home field advantage in the AFC. Leading this offensive is of course Payton Manning who is again putting up MVP caliber numbers.

The Jaguars will have little to counter the offense firepower of the Colts. Recent history suggests that these teams just somehow manage to play close games as with the last 4 games being decided by 7 points or fewer. I see this as more of an anomaly then a trend because the offense David Garrard leads in every bit as mediocre as their record. Jacksonville ranks 23rd in points scored and 15th in yards per game. The Indianapolis defense will counter this level of mediocrity with a defense that is 2nd best in points allowed at 16.2 points per game. Only when Jones Drew rushes for more than 76 yards has this team been successful as they are 6-2. Jacksonville may be able to expose the rushing defense of Indianapolis as it is currently ranked 17th in the league, giving up an average of 110.4 yards per game but in the last 3 games, that average has increased to nearly 119 yards per game.

The inability of Garrard to move the ball down field on a consistent basis makes this a simple game plan for Indianapolis. The Colts will surely overload the box and with Garrard only throwing 10 touchdowns this year, his weapons on the outside will be limited. Indianapolis will also be able to take advantage of their strong pass rush as they are ranked 12th in the league in sacks with 2.9 per game while the Jacksonville offensive line ranks 28th in the league in sacks allowed, giving up almost 3 per game. And for a team that emphasizes the run, Garrard is getting hit, pressured, hurried, or knocked down on way too many drop backs.

Indianapolis enters the game as 3 point favorites. This year, Indianapolis is 9-3-1 ATS. In the last 5 games Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road. In head to head matchups, Indianapolis 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Jacksonville. This year, Jacksonville is 5-8 ATS. Jacksonville is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games, 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home. The O/U for the game is listed at 43. This season both Indianapolis and Jacksonville are 6-7 O/U. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville and OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing Jacksonville on the road.

Thursday Pick: Stay away from the trends and use some common sense for this game, the trend better would see how close these teams have played in recent years and look for this game to be close with even a potential upset possible, not happening. Indianapolis is a significantly better team at this point in the season so 3 points is the easy cover. I also like the OVER, if weather is not a factor, Indianapolis should be able to put up points in bunches on the 20th ranked Jacksonville defense.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Patriots vs. Colts Sunday Pick

The NFL’s best rivalry resumes this Sunday when the 6-2 New England Patriots visit the undefeated Indianapolis Colts. New England enters the game riding a soft 3 game winning streak against some of the leagues lesser opponents, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, and Miami. Indianapolis enters the game winners of 17 consecutive regular season games, tied for 3rd longest in league history. Both teams are poised to make deep playoff runs this year again and with the winner of this game, either solidifying home-field advantage or opening the door for someone else to step in.

There is very little that separates these teams after 8 games in the season. The New England and Indianapolis are ranked 7th and 8th in total defense respectively and 1st and 2nd in points allowed. Offensively, these teams are ranked in the top 5 in total offense, points scored, and 1st and 3rd in sacks allowed. Both of these teams are so evenly matched up in most major statistically categories that focusing on the team statistics is almost pointless. This game will turn on the individual battles on both sides of the ball.

The Dwight Freeney factor could potentially pose a huge matchup problem for New England. Indianapolis is 5th in the league in total sacks; lead by pro bowl defensive end Freeney with 9.5 sacks. New England will counter Freeney without their best offensive tackle in Matt Light. Light has been suffering from a knee injury and in typical Bill Belichick fashion; I do not expect him to be officially “out” until game time. Sebastian Vollmer, a plodding 6-foot-8 rookie from Houston will have the unenviable task of stopping Freeney from getting a sack in his 9th consecutive game. With Freeney’s small size, low center of gravity, and explosive first step, Vollmer should have his hands full much of the day. New England will be forced to use tight ends and running back and potentially more max protect packages depending on the pressure throughout the game, limiting Brady’s passing options. Advantage goes to Freeney and the Indianapolis Colts.

The debate rages on every single year and is only magnified when these two teams play, Manning or Brady? Where do we start when trying to quantify which quarterback is “more great?” Is it there head to head records? Tom Brady is leading the head to head matchup 7-3 but Manning has won 3 of the last 4. What about Super Bowls? Brady has 3 rings compared to Manning’s 1. How about MVP awards? Manning has won 3 MVP Awards, 2003, 2004, and 2008 compared to Brady’s single award in 2007. Even this year these quarterback’s numbers are almost identical. Manning has thrown for 2545 yards, completed 70.6% of his passes, with 16 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Brady has thrown for 2364 yards, completed 65.8% of his passes, with 16 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. So how does any of this information help us for Sunday? It really does little in helping me figure who will cover but for some of betters out there, these number will only reinforce the perception of how great one quarterback is over another and push them in that direction. What I can determine from these quarterback numbers is that neither team will be using the run to set up the pass. Expect lots of attempts and more probably, lots of yardage especially for Brady with Bob Saunders being out for the season with a torn biceps tendon. I want to lean towards Brady even if on the road because of the absence of Bob Saunders but if there is one quarterback who can win a game by himself, it is Payton Manning. I direct the reader back to week 2 in which Manning led the Colts to a victory over Miami while only possessing the ball on offense for 14:53. There really is no advantage to be had between the two quarterbacks.

Where the game will turn is in each team’s red-zone efficiency. Settling for 3 will not be enough with the way both of these teams can put up points. This year New England has been notoriously bad in the red zone, scoring only 44% of the time, good for 25th in the league. Indianapolis has been a little better, scoring 55% of the time, good for 14th in the league. However, in their last 3 games, Indianapolis has had some trouble putting the ball in the end zone, scoring only 45% of the time with the last two games coming at home against San Francisco and Houston. It could prove to be a troublesome trend as the Colts are scoring far less, settling for more field goals, and Payton Manning is being forced to throw the ball far more than most quarterbacks would like, 98 attempts in the last 2 games.

At 8-0, the sense of urgency is still far greater for Indianapolis than New England. I don’t believe Indianapolis can go into New England, in the middle of December, and pull out a victory. New England on the other hand, has proven they can win anywhere in any weather condition, at any time of the year. Indianapolis cannot say the same thing, they need New England or any other cold weather team to travel to the friendly confides of Lucas Oil Stadium.
Sunday Night Football Pick: The game has coin flip written all over it. It is easy to make an argument for both teams because of how evenly matched up they have been through the first 8 games. If the spread stays below -3 Indianapolis, take Indianapolis. If the spread climbs above -3 at any point, take New England.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Erin Andrews shows off her legs and tits at the 2009 ESPY Awards

Erin Andrews continues to show why she is one of the most searched sexy reporters in Google every day by horny men across the USA.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

2009 NFL Scouting Combine Betting Odds

The evolution of online sports betting continues with the news that has NFL Combine Betting Odds. For the first time in its 12-year history, has released odds on the 2009 NFL Souting Combine. I would expect other online sportsbooks to quickly follow their lead.

Set to take place next week in Indianapolis, the NFL Combine offers fans the chance to see the future stars of the NFL and now is giving bettors the chance to wager on the results.

From the fastest 40-yard dash, the highest vertical jump, most bench press reps, and individual player matchups, has close to 30 different ways for members to wager on the NFL Combine.

“The NFL Season may be over but NFL betting doesn’t have to be,” said spokesperson Dave Staley. “Our members love football and we’re giving them what they want.”

“These props are for the true NFL super-fans; the ones that can never get enough football,” he added. “Our draft odds were extremely popular last year and we’re looking to build off that this offseason.”

Oddsmakers list Florida Gators receiver Percy Harvin as a favorite over Missouri standout Jeremy Maclin in one of the 40-yard dash matchups. Georgia running back Knowshon Moreno is a slight favorite over Ohio State’s Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells in another.

In the ‘Battle of the Big Guys’, offensive linemen Andre Smith and Duke Robinson are pitted against each other while oddsmakers have matched linebacker prospects Aaron Curry and James Laurinaitis against each other for the 40-yard dash and the bench press.

“There are so many interesting variables to the combine,” said Staley. “Everyone’s going to be watching Sportscenter and the NFL Network to see how the former college stars perform and we wanted to make it additionally exciting for members.”

The NFL Combine odds are not the only NFL odds that will be unveiling this offseason. 2010 Super Bowl XLIV odds are already live with the New England Patriots listed as 6:1 favorites.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Super Bowl 43 Betting Odds coming into the Conference Championship Games

1 Arizona Cardinals +550
2 Baltimore Ravens +400
3 Philadelphia Eagles +200
4 Pittsburgh Steelers +140

Bet these Super Bowl 43 Odds HERE

Monday, November 17, 2008

2 Unbelievable "Betting Jinx" from over the weekend!

Guys, I am taking the lazy way out here because BarStool Sports did a great job providing the back story and videos of the horrible "bad beats" that took place over the weekend for those who bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers and USC Trojans.

See the full story at BarStool